Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8B 0x8bf3…6077 other 765 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,764 (+4%) realized +$7,447 · open −$3,683
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate51%279W / 271L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day64.9pace
Fees−$181est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$35,054now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$16,465
sports 13% −$54
world 2% +$1,811
crypto 1% +$347
politics 0% −$85
weather 0% −$170
economics 0% +$11
tech 0% −$13
culture 0% +$12
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 -12.4% -20.8% 43% 35% -19.5%
≤30d 516 -18.0% -25.8% 49% 31% -17.4%
≤90d 550 +6.2% -3.9% 51% 33% +18.7%
all 550 +6.2% -3.9% 51% 33% +18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 33% +18.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 23% +7.4%
15% -21.5% 18% -3.0%
20% -29.2% 16% -12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$47 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$35,054
Realized+$7,447
Unrealized−$3,683
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses279 / 271
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions216
Markets (closed)550 / 765
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$133
Trades / day64.9
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 216 History 550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $9,332 $6,810 −$2,522 (-27%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4,646 $4,095 −$551 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,717 $3,390 −$327 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,370 $2,415 +$45 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $1,531 $1,892 +$361 (+24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,044 $790 −$254 (-24%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 82¢ $685 $757 +$72 (+11%)
Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $623 $628 +$4 (+1%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? No 70¢ 70¢ $587 $585 −$2 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $434 $578 +$144 (+33%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 66¢ $592 $578 −$15 (-2%)
Will Pau Cubarsí score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 84¢ $427 $479 +$52 (+12%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 65¢ 65¢ $367 $366 −$2 (-0%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 92¢ $74 $282 +$208 (+281%)
Will Aurélien Tchouaméni score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 80¢ $253 $278 +$25 (+10%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 54¢ $255 $270 +$15 (+6%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 26¢ 78¢ $87 $258 +$171 (+198%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 66¢ $172 $248 +$76 (+45%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 26¢ $124 $226 +$102 (+82%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $114 $225 +$111 (+97%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 34¢ $356 $219 −$137 (-38%)
Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $201 $210 +$9 (+4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $165 $205 +$40 (+24%)
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 76¢ $169 $202 +$33 (+19%)
Will Rúben Dias score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 80¢ $180 $201 +$21 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $145 −$143 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $154 −$152 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $313 −$310 -99%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 27 $0 $0 +49%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 27 $7 +$43 +619%
Will Cape Verde be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 27 $21 +$3 +13%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Uruguay vs Spain F Jun 27 $17 +$3 +19%
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $130 +$96 +73%
Will the announcers say "Barcelona" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA W Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $330 +$550 +166%
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 27 $35 +$25 +74%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wo Jun 27 $1 +$1 +113%
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $252 +$148 +59%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA World Jun 27 $31 +$9 +27%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick" or "Hat Trick" during the Uruguay v Jun 27 $8 +$7 +85%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $40 −$37 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $44 +$16 +35%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $58 +$164 +285%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $171 +$129 +75%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Worl Jun 27 $17 +$3 +15%
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 26 $98 +$2 +2%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Worl Jun 26 $3 +$17 +488%
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Japan vs Jun 26 $7 +$13 +170%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Jun 26 $18 +$2 +9%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Jun 26 $85 +$15 +18%
Will the announcers say "Los Angeles" 5+ times during the Turkiye vs U Jun 26 $15 +$5 +33%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World C Jun 26 $7 +$13 +189%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World C Jun 26 $7 +$13 +170%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA Worl Jun 26 $11 +$9 +82%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg” or “Meg" during the Turkiye vs USA FI Jun 26 $8 +$12 +144%
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 26 $224 +$176 +79%
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $30 +$10 +35%
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 26 $25 +$15 +60%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Jun 26 $23 −$3 -12%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the Japan vs Jun 26 $10 +$10 +108%
Will Sweden finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 26 $28 +$5 +19%
Will Sweden be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group St Jun 26 $22 −$2 -11%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 26 $108 +$92 +85%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Worl Jun 26 $54 +$66 +121%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $55 −$8 -15%
Will Tahith Chong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $17 +$7 +42%
Will the announcers say "Energy" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Wo Jun 26 $10 +$10 +92%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Jun 26 $18 +$2 +9%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Jun 26 $9 +$11 +127%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $62 +$108 +174%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $69 18m
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 30m
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $639 32m
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $563 48m
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $145 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $554 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $37 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $46 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $221 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $51 3h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $6 3h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $0 3h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $97 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $105 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $208 4h
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 6h
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $12 18h
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $52 18h
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $880 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $96 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $64 20h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $45 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,053.87 · official $35,046.64 (match) · 3500 history records