Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:18:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

8B 0x8bf5…a351 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$1,502 (+21%) realized +$1,243 · open +$259

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$895per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$2,499now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$861

7 days+$1,333

14 days+$1,327

30 days+$1,461

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+1.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+35.7%	+22.7%	100%	100%	+19.9%
≤30d	7	+12.5%	+1.8%	71%	71%	+17.5%
≤90d	7	+12.5%	+1.8%	71%	71%	+17.5%
all	7	+12.5%	+1.8%	71%	71%	+17.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.8%	71%	+17.5%
10%	-7.9%	71%	+6.2%
15%	-16.8%	29%	-4.0%
20%	-25.0%	29%	-13.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 58% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$314 vs −$55 · ×5.73 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×14.32 per $1 lost it wins $14.32

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage

Net worth$2,499

Realized+$1,243

Unrealized+$259

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage16d

Avg bet$895

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	No	65¢	72¢	$2,241	$2,499	+$259 (+12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 26	$1,827	+$441	+24%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 26	$1,373	+$421	+31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$902	+$471	+52%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$103	−$101	-99%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$111	−$9	-8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$359	+$104	+29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$225	+$134	+60%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	65¢	$2,264	1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,267	1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	80¢	$1,827	14h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	76¢	$1,373	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	65¢	$902	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$103	8d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	27¢	$103	8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY No	77¢	$359	14d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY No	62¢	$225	14d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	28¢	$111	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,499.47 · official $2,499.47 (match) · 14 history records