Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bf7…9907 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL +$203 (+2%) realized +$215 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate65%17W / 9L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$513now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$252
14 days+$288
30 days+$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$349
politics 43% −$95
other 2% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+54.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +81.3% +64.1% 65% 39% -8.4%
≤30d 26 +71.0% +54.8% 65% 38% -7.9%
≤90d 26 +71.0% +54.8% 65% 38% -7.9%
all 26 +71.0% +54.8% 65% 38% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +54.8% 38% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here +39.9% 19% -16.7%
15% +26.4% 19% -24.8%
20% +14.0% 12% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +159% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$39 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$513
Realized+$215
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses17 / 9
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage9d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 79¢ $162 $256 +$95 (+59%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Inner Circle Esports 56¢ 100¢ $107 $190 +$83 (+78%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 21¢ $162 $67 −$95 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Ame Jun 25 $94 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 25 $316 −$55 -17%
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $333 +$178 +53%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $1,018 +$35 +4%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $20 +$4 +20%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $51 +$2 +5%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag Jun 25 $170 +$20 +12%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $125 −$30 -24%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 25 $1 $0 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $56 +$11 +19%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $508 $0 +0%
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 25 $4 $0 +1%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Joblife (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Grou Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $5 −$1 -23%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $69 +$30 +44%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $500 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $179 +$21 +12%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $169 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $38 +$22 +59%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $1,884 +$125 +7%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $632 +$70 +11%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $179 +$7 +4%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $322 +$32 +10%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra SELL Inner Circle Esports 55¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 57¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 57¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 57¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 41¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 41¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 57¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 57¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 57¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra SELL Sashi Esport 39¢ $58 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra SELL Sashi Esport 39¢ $58 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 41¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 59¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $23 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.94 · official $512.95 (match) · 356 history records