Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8B 0x8bf8…093b sports 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$14 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%102W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$16
14 days+$5
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$17
other 2% +$2
politics 2% −$8
finance 1% −$11
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 +6.2% -4.0% 58% 58% -7.1%
≤30d 195 -3.1% -12.3% 52% 52% -9.4%
≤90d 195 -3.1% -12.3% 52% 52% -9.4%
all 195 -3.1% -12.3% 52% 52% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 52% -9.4%
10% -20.7% 45% -18.1%
15% -28.4% 34% -26.0%
20% -35.4% 27% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses102 / 93
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions48
Markets (closed)195 / 243
History coverage19d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Cameron Norrie 49¢ 46¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 63¢ 66¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Alexander Zverev 92¢ 95¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 75¢ 76¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Alex de Minaur 82¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Arthur Rinderknech 52¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Joao Lucas Da Silva 57¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+75%)
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Gustavo Heide 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Marin Cilic 47¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Alejandro Tabilo 50¢ 50¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 57¢ 90¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+57%)
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Clement Tabur 42¢ 65¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+55%)
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Gustavo Almeida 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Tomas Etcheverry 28¢ 20¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Pedro Martinez 66¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jesper de Jong 52¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Miomir Kecmanovic 54¢ 40¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 82¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Enrico Dalla Valle 74¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Hernan Casanova 86¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Yibing Wu 74¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Oliver Crawford 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Matias Soto 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Frederico Ferreira Silva 55¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Titouan Droguet 55¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $2 +$4 +203%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $3 +$2 +75%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $10 −$2 -24%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $6 +$4 +73%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $4 +$3 +71%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $3 +$3 +93%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $3 +$8 +272%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $2 +$3 +124%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 15 $10 −$5 -49%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 15 $3 +$2 +58%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $3 +$6 +180%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $4 +$5 +124%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $2 +$1 +53%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $3 +$2 +56%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $4 +$3 +83%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $3 +$1 +31%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $5 +$5 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 55¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 86¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 86¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 64¢ $2 1h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 53¢ $2 1h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 53¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 82¢ $2 1h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 45¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 53¢ $2 1h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Ilia Simakin 25¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez BUY Alex Santino Nunez 6¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 80¢ $1 1h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 77¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 56¢ $2 1h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 79¢ $2 1h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Maximo Zeitune BUY Maximo Zeitune 63¢ $2 1h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 54¢ $1 1h
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Ivan Ivanov 31¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Alex Hernandez BUY Alex Hernandez 24¢ $1 1h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin BUY Norbert Gombos 64¢ $1 2h
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov BUY Pavel Kotov 86¢ $1 2h
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Frederico Ferreira Silva 55¢ $2 2h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 17¢ $1 2h
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan BUY Maxim Mrva 75¢ $1 2h
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet BUY Maxime Janvier 44¢ $4 2h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 57¢ $3 2h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Philip Henning 69¢ $2 2h
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren BUY Roman Safiullin 66¢ $1 3h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 55¢ $2 3h
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 74¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.71 · official $120.71 (match) · 480 history records