Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8B 0x8bf8…e08e other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$62 (+4%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -3.3% -12.6% 58% 42% -11.4%
≤30d 12 -3.3% -12.6% 58% 42% -11.4%
≤90d 12 -3.3% -12.6% 58% 42% -11.4%
all 12 -3.3% -12.6% 58% 42% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 42% -11.4%
10% -20.9% 25% -19.9%
15% -28.6% 8% -27.7%
20% -35.6% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$38 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $287 +$32 +11%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $406 −$116 -29%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $76 +$14 +19%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $182 +$18 +10%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $142 +$40 +28%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $108 +$34 +31%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $64 −$24 -37%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $74 −$10 -14%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $54 +$20 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 53m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 93¢ $110 56m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 92¢ $114 57m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 96¢ $126 57m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 51¢ $80 58m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 79¢ $151 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 42¢ $112 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 35¢ $123 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 25¢ $56 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $90 17h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 83¢ $76 17h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $100 19h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 22h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 91¢ $182 22h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 93¢ $182 25h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 72¢ $142 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 99¢ $142 43h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 75¢ $108 44h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 45¢ $40 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 41¢ $40 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 10¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records