Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:28:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8bf9…6a86 world 298 markets active 1h ago coverage 885d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$198 (+3%) realized +$205 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate45%101W / 122L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$6
14 days−$16
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% +$68
other 29% −$1
politics 25% −$31
world 6% +$165
crypto 5% −$1
culture 3% $0
finance 1% −$18
tech 1% +$15
economics 0% +$2
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +10.4% -0.2% 60% 42% -6.7%
≤30d 182 -1.1% -10.6% 46% 33% +12.0%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 47% 34% +15.0%
all 223 +0.5% -9.1% 45% 30% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 30% -6.8%
10% -17.8% 26% -15.7%
15% -25.7% 22% -23.8%
20% -33.0% 16% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

885d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$205
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses101 / 122
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions75
Markets (closed)223 / 298
History coverage885d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 75 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 70¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 62¢ 68¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 75¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 52¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 52¢ 64¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 63¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 64¢ 48¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 20¢ 55¢ $2 $5 +$4 (+178%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 49¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 18¢ 40¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+126%)
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? No 77¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+14%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+15%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 66¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? Yes 46¢ 56¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 79¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 46¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? No 32¢ 25¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -79%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -47%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1 $0 -13%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $7 +$3 +42%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 13 $8 −$1 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $1 $0 -33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +49%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 13 $6 $0 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 13 $6 −$4 -62%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +43%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +47%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +44%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -78%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +113%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +46%
Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian gov Jun 11 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 +$2 +117%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $10 $0 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -24%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +28%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $4 +$3 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No $1 56m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY No 26¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $1 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 3h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 3h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $1 6h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $4 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $1 6h
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J BUY No 65¢ $1 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 6h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL No 83¢ $2 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No $0 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 74¢ $1 6h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $1 6h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 6h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 6h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 6h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $1 6h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 43¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.62 · official $196.28 (match) · 898 history records