Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bf9…d8b9 other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$239 (+2%) realized +$247 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate86%111W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$14
14 days+$16
30 days+$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$391
sports 18% −$149
politics 13% −$23
world 5% +$4
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 5% -9.0%
≤30d 39 -0.8% -10.2% 97% 5% -3.4%
≤90d 111 -1.4% -10.8% 93% 10% -6.2%
all 129 -6.1% -15.0% 86% 9% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 9% -8.1%
10% -23.1% 5% -16.9%
15% -30.6% 5% -24.9%
20% -37.4% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$19 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$247
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses111 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)129 / 138
History coverage234d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $54 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 72¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 41¢ 13¢ $8 $3 −$6 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $509 $0 +0%
Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $129 +$1 +0%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $266 +$5 +2%
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $79 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $152 +$2 +1%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $399 +$1 +0%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $160 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $250 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $419 +$1 +0%
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $276 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 23 $974 +$368 +38%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $407 +$20 +5%
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $58 $0 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $64 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $82 $0 +1%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $105 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $195 +$8 +4%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 5.5 May 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $189 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $349 +$14 +4%
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $334 +$1 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $237 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 1h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 100¢ $509 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 10h
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 29h
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 3d
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $260 3d
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 3d
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 3d
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 3d
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 3d
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $499 3d
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $13 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 52¢ $1 4d
Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 5d
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 5d
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 5d
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 6d
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 6d
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 6d
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $399 6d
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.45 · official $171.83 (match) · 322 history records