Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bf9…8292 sports 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$403 (-19%) realized −$328 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate67%29W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,746now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$390
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +22.5% +10.8% 67% 51% -25.7%
≤30d 43 +22.5% +10.8% 67% 51% -25.7%
≤90d 43 +22.5% +10.8% 67% 51% -25.7%
all 43 +22.5% +10.8% 67% 51% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.8% 51% -25.7%
10% ← realistic here +0.2% 30% -32.8%
15% -9.4% 23% -39.3%
20% -18.3% 21% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$43 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,746
Realized−$328
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses29 / 14
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions18
Markets (closed)43 / 61
History coverage2d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Tulsa: James Trotter vs Ilyas Milad Fahim James Trotter 79¢ 78¢ $86 $84 −$2 (-2%)
ITF Irvine: Nathan Cox vs Aadarsh Tripathi Nathan Cox 53¢ 42¢ $39 $31 −$8 (-20%)
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Andre Lima 82¢ 84¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
ITF Mohammedia: Nina Vargova vs Soha Sadiq Nina Vargova 92¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+9%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 69¢ 68¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 57¢ 100¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+75%)
ITF Constanta: Ruben Hartig vs Iulius Maximus Stoica Ruben Hartig 76¢ 100¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+31%)
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Darja Vidmanova 60¢ 89¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+48%)
ITF Irvine: Vit Kalina vs Marcel Latak Marcel Latak 33¢ 31¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Bia Mesquita 81¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Qinwen Zheng 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Thiago Seyboth Wild 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Luque: Camila Romero vs Luciana Moyano Luciana Moyano 70¢ 76¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+9%)
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Han Shi Han Shi 62¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
ITF Dinard: Milena Ciocan vs Lisa Claeys Lisa Claeys 61¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Eduardo Ribeiro 50¢ 35¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
ITF Monastir: Natalia Sousa Salazar vs Lauren Seye Lauren Seye 71¢ 0¢ $82 $1 −$81 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF San Gregorio: Agnese Gentili vs Anna Lena Ebster Jun 17 $14 +$4 +26%
ITF Samobor: Karlo Kajin vs Dimitar Kuzmanov Jun 17 $77 +$4 +5%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $139 −$136 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc Jun 17 $85 −$84 -99%
ITF Mohammedia: Clarissa Blomqvist vs Nour El Ouazzani Jun 17 $32 +$4 +12%
ITF Kayseri: Ustiniya Lekomtseva vs Semra Aksu Jun 17 $326 −$324 -100%
ITF Constanta: Stefan Adrian Andreescu vs Andrei Corneliu Gadoiu Jun 17 $273 +$17 +6%
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Jun 17 $113 +$18 +16%
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata Jun 17 $112 +$21 +19%
ITF Samobor: Mili Poljicak vs Bozo Barun Jun 17 $101 +$6 +6%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vuk Radjenovic vs Nikola Matovic Jun 17 $74 +$12 +16%
ITF Monastir: Oluwaseun Peter Ogunsakin vs Danil Panarin Jun 17 $42 +$11 +26%
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Maria Pares Bergnes De Las Casas Jun 17 $28 +$4 +14%
ITF Monastir: Photos Photiades vs Paul Inchauspe Jun 17 $85 +$16 +19%
ITF Constanta: Vito Dell'elba vs Mihai Alexandru Coman Jun 17 $6 +$15 +278%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $20 +$15 +75%
ITF Kayseri: Aditya Kothari vs Muzammil Murtaza Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Peru Bayo Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das Jun 16 $10 +$1 +15%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 16 $10 −$2 -23%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 15 $10 +$57 +553%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 15 $10 +$10 +95%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $10 +$6 +63%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Yu Ning Tsai Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 15 $10 +$22 +218%
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 15 $10 +$10 +102%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $3 +$2 +95%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Hanfmann/Struff Jun 15 $10 +$8 +78%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 15 $17 +$7 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Dinard: Milena Ciocan vs Lisa Claeys BUY Lisa Claeys 61¢ $6 1h
ITF Tulsa: James Trotter vs Ilyas Milad Fahim BUY James Trotter 79¢ $87 1h
ITF Irvine: Vit Kalina vs Marcel Latak BUY Marcel Latak 33¢ $2 1h
ITF Irvine: Vit Kalina vs Marcel Latak BUY Marcel Latak 33¢ $6 1h
ITF Irvine: Vit Kalina vs Marcel Latak BUY Marcel Latak 33¢ $4 1h
ITF Irvine: Nathan Cox vs Aadarsh Tripathi BUY Nathan Cox 53¢ $26 2h
ITF Irvine: Nathan Cox vs Aadarsh Tripathi BUY Nathan Cox 53¢ $13 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Darja Vidmanova 60¢ $9 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Han Shi BUY Han Shi 62¢ $6 3h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 57¢ $10 7h
ITF San Gregorio: Agnese Gentili vs Anna Lena Ebster BUY Agnese Gentili 79¢ $14 7h
ITF Samobor: Karlo Kajin vs Dimitar Kuzmanov BUY Dimitar Kuzmanov 95¢ $77 7h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 38¢ $69 7h
ITF Mohammedia: Nina Vargova vs Soha Sadiq BUY Nina Vargova 92¢ $18 8h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 39¢ $70 8h
ITF Monastir: Natalia Sousa Salazar vs Lauren Seye BUY Lauren Seye 71¢ $74 8h
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Eduardo Ribeiro 50¢ $4 9h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Lana Virc 79¢ $85 9h
ITF Monastir: Natalia Sousa Salazar vs Lauren Seye BUY Lauren Seye 71¢ $9 9h
ITF Mohammedia: Clarissa Blomqvist vs Nour El Ouazzani BUY Clarissa Blomqvist 89¢ $32 9h
ITF Kayseri: Ustiniya Lekomtseva vs Semra Aksu BUY Ustiniya Lekomtseva 85¢ $33 10h
ITF Constanta: Stefan Adrian Andreescu vs Andrei Corneliu Gadoiu BUY Stefan Adrian Andreescu 94¢ $77 10h
ITF Constanta: Stefan Adrian Andreescu vs Andrei Corneliu Gadoiu BUY Stefan Adrian Andreescu 94¢ $98 11h
ITF Kayseri: Ustiniya Lekomtseva vs Semra Aksu BUY Ustiniya Lekomtseva 85¢ $79 11h
ITF Kayseri: Ustiniya Lekomtseva vs Semra Aksu BUY Ustiniya Lekomtseva 85¢ $45 11h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 86¢ $34 11h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Patrick Schoen 84¢ $27 11h
ITF Samobor: Mili Poljicak vs Bozo Barun BUY Mili Poljicak 94¢ $24 11h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vuk Radjenovic vs Nikola Matovic BUY Vuk Radjenovic 86¢ $74 11h
ITF Monastir: Oluwaseun Peter Ogunsakin vs Danil Panarin BUY Danil Panarin 79¢ $42 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,746.18 · official $1,746.18 (match) · 82 history records