Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:16:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8B 0x8bfa…a8de sports 355 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10,829 (+7%) realized +$11,043 · open −$214
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%182W / 172L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$437per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$2,607est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$821now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 147d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$7,351
crypto 1% −$2,189
other 0% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +2.1% -7.6% 53% 50% -6.0%
≤30d 164 -3.2% -12.4% 49% 47% -4.3%
≤90d 319 -2.9% -12.2% 49% 47% -6.0%
all 354 +1.2% -8.4% 51% 49% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 49% -5.4%
10% -17.2% 44% -14.4%
15% -25.2% 33% -22.7%
20% -32.5% 28% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$200 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$821
Realized+$11,043
Unrealized−$214
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses182 / 172
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$2,607
Open positions1
Markets (closed)354 / 355
History coverage147d
Avg bet$437
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Qinwen Zheng 54¢ 42¢ $1,035 $821 −$214 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $7,150 −$4,673 -65%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $5,878 −$161 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,410 −$42 -3%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $2,974 +$1,641 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,013 −$2,000 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $507 −$500 -99%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $505 −$97 -19%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $2,140 +$933 +44%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 13 $2,966 +$1,643 +55%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $5,307 +$397 +8%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $7,518 −$1,093 -14%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $4,294 +$2,885 +67%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $2,026 −$1,426 -70%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $610 −$304 -50%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $3,999 +$1,054 +26%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $202 −$200 -99%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $1,016 +$992 +98%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $202 −$73 -36%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $101 +$15 +15%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $708 +$296 +42%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $506 +$138 +27%
Modena: Noma Noha Akugue vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 10 $1,014 +$317 +31%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 09 $102 +$168 +165%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 09 $204 −$200 -98%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $508 +$533 +105%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 09 $343 +$129 +38%
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $102 +$103 +101%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $509 +$709 +139%
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Jun 08 $508 +$543 +107%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $7 +$9 +125%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $202 −$32 -16%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 07 $4,622 +$566 +12%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 07 $1,505 +$829 +55%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 07 $489 −$411 -84%
Libema Open, Qualification: Ella Seidel vs Greet Minnen Jun 07 $1,017 −$904 -89%
ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs Yufei Ren Jun 07 $304 −$200 -66%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $101 +$60 +60%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 06 $707 +$116 +16%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $506 −$40 -8%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $503 +$99 +20%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $101 +$1 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $506 +$255 +50%
ITF Sumter: Malaika Rapolu vs Cadence Brace Jun 05 $169 −$165 -98%
Makarska: Noma Noha Akugue vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $510 −$312 -61%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 05 $945 +$1,134 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 54¢ $1,049 15m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za SELL Maria Timofeeva 12¢ $1,040 23m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Maria Timofeeva 60¢ $5,408 53m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za SELL Renata Zarazua 49¢ $1,436 56m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Renata Zarazua 58¢ $1,742 1h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken SELL Botic van de Zandschulp 67¢ $5,717 1h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 67¢ $5,878 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $1,368 11h
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves SELL Carolina Alves 100¢ $4,615 11h
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Carolina Alves 45¢ $356 13h
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Carolina Alves 71¢ $1,686 14h
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Carolina Alves 62¢ $933 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $2,013 14h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $1,410 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $507 15h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Lucia Bronzetti 53¢ $409 15h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 62¢ $303 16h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 67¢ $202 16h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Emma Raducanu 69¢ $2,140 43h
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker SELL Johan Alexander Rodriguez 72¢ $4,609 45h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle SELL Jesper de Jong 39¢ $1,512 45h
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 45¢ $2,966 45h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Jesper de Jong 31¢ $1,225 45h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle SELL Enrico Dalla Valle 64¢ $4,193 46h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 61¢ $4,082 46h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 33¢ $1,020 47h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova SELL Emma Raducanu 73¢ $2,631 47h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova SELL Emma Raducanu 80¢ $2,470 47h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Emma Raducanu 93¢ $6,293 2d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova SELL Kamilla Rakhimova $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $821.04 · official $821.04 (match) · 875 history records