Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bfc…7757 crypto 437 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,582 (-2%) realized −$1,582 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate86%375W / 62L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$344
14 days−$1,243
30 days−$1,970
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,903
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -2.7% -12.0% 83% 39% -23.7%
≤30d 375 -1.0% -10.5% 85% 27% -12.3%
≤90d 437 -0.8% -10.3% 86% 27% -11.9%
all 437 -0.8% -10.3% 86% 27% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 27% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 11% -20.3%
15% -26.7% 6% -28.0%
20% -33.9% 3% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$104 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,582
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses375 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)437 / 437
History coverage32d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 437 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $801 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $202 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $308 −$301 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$101 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $502 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $205 −$201 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $102 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $282 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $501 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $502 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $201 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $103 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $191 +$22 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $102 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $102 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $102 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $103 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 08 $402 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 08 $102 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $102 +$12 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $501 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $202 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $308 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $502 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1,015 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $205 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $101 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $102 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $101 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $101 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $202 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $80 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 964 history records