Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:08:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8bfc…8d4f
weather · 51 markets active 5h ago
4.5score
+$15 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$61
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses32 / 12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)44 / 51
History coverage22d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 78¢ 99¢ $12 $16 +$3 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 57¢ 68¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 72¢ 78¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 76¢ 48¢ $12 $8 −$5 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? No 67¢ 65¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 73¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 52¢ 44¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? No 79¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2? No 69¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 29? No 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? No 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? No 78¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3? No 32¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? No 73¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4? No 65¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 1? No 72¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? No 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 30? No 83¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $9 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $12 +$5 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 09 $12 +$4 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $7 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 08 $8 +$4 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $12 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $6 +$3 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 05 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 3? Jun 04 $9 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 03 $13 +$7 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 03 $13 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 02 $21 +$13 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 1? Jun 02 $7 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3? Jun 02 $13 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 31? Jun 01 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 31? Jun 01 $8 +$5 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 30? May 31 $8 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 30? May 31 $7 +$5 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 1? May 31 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 29? May 30 $9 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 28? May 29 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 30? May 29 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 27? May 28 $11 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 29? May 28 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 25? May 26 $4 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 25? May 25 $3 −$3 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 24? May 25 $25 +$10 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 24? May 25 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 23? May 24 $27 +$13 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 23? May 23 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 22? May 22 $7 +$3 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 52¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 73¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 57¢ $8 32h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $13 36h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 72¢ $8 36h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 76¢ $12 36h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? BUY No 79¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? BUY No 73¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? BUY No 75¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY No 84¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY No 60¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? BUY No 73¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? BUY No 68¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? BUY No 67¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? BUY No 79¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? BUY No 83¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 8? BUY No 76¢ $12 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? BUY No 64¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? BUY No 63¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? BUY No 75¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 5? BUY No 66¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? BUY No 80¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? BUY No 78¢ $6 8d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 4? BUY No 82¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 4? BUY No 84¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 4? BUY No 78¢ $8 9d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4? BUY No 65¢ $13 9d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 3? BUY No 78¢ $9 10d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3? BUY No 32¢ $13 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.1% -8.6% 75% 75% -15.5%
≤30d 44 +0.1% -9.4% 73% 73% -5.9%
≤90d 44 +0.1% -9.4% 73% 73% -5.9%
all 44 +0.1% -9.4% 73% 73% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 73% -5.9%
10% -18.1% 59% -14.9%
15% -26.0% 34% -23.1%
20% -33.3% 14% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.33 · official $61.45 (match) · 91 history records