Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bfc…5943 sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$965 (+23%) realized +$958 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%21W / 57L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$540now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$735
14 days−$562
30 days−$562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$415
other 45% +$634
crypto 2% −$44
world 1% −$46
politics 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -50.0% -54.7% 17% 16% -37.8%
≤30d 69 -35.4% -41.6% 20% 19% -29.5%
≤90d 69 -35.4% -41.6% 20% 19% -29.5%
all 78 -15.3% -23.3% 27% 24% +15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 24% +15.5%
10% -30.7% 24% +4.5%
15% -37.4% 24% -5.6%
20% -43.5% 21% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$27 · ×4.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$540
Realized+$958
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses21 / 57
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions9
Markets (closed)78 / 91
History coverage210d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $180 $221 +$41 (+23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $70 $94 +$24 (+35%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 28¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $78 $65 −$13 (-17%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $65 $30 −$35 (-54%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+92%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$33 +325%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -39%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$7 -71%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $31 −$11 -35%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 $0 -6%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
First Round Pool C: Czechia vs. Chinese Taipei Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
First Round Pool B: Mexico vs. Italy Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela Jun 19 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $92 −$92 -100%
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea Jun 19 $120 −$120 -100%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Jun 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 68¢ $21 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $20 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 11h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 11h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $10 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $10 36h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 36h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 14¢ $21 47h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Under 11¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $20 2d
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $540.13 · official $540.13 (match) · 281 history records