Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:42:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8c04…03fe sports 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 401d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17,721 (+54%) realized +$17,722 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%40W / 68L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$207est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,418
7 days−$1,111
14 days+$3,185
30 days+$15,302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$3,772
other 38% +$1,398
politics 14% +$10,253
crypto 3% −$13
economics 2% +$58
culture 0% −$76
weather 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +1.7% -8.0% 35% 35% -18.1%
≤30d 48 +22.8% +11.1% 42% 42% +74.0%
≤90d 94 -7.3% -16.1% 31% 30% +36.5%
all 108 +6.8% -3.4% 37% 36% +36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 36% +36.9%
10% -12.7% 36% +23.8%
15% -21.1% 32% +11.8%
20% -28.8% 31% +0.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$756 vs −$218 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

401d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$17,722
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses40 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$207
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage401d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $156 $154 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$57 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,171 −$1,143 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,623 −$960 -59%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $102 +$249 +243%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $165 +$195 +119%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $254 −$250 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $380 −$367 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$24 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $543 +$472 +87%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $112 +$122 +109%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $478 −$471 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $415 +$1,589 +383%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $180 −$177 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 +$827 +414%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $453 −$21 -5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $41 −$38 -92%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $304 −$300 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,338 +$2,915 +218%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $327 −$321 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $868 −$488 -56%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $408 −$408 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $815 −$342 -42%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $306 +$631 +206%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1,422 +$2,609 +183%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1,492 +$5,813 +390%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1,503 +$5,913 +393%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $205 +$606 +296%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $203 +$206 +101%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $194 −$91 -47%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $191 +$383 +201%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $75 +$28 +37%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $58 +$17 +28%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $89 −$73 -82%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $79 +$135 +172%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $281 −$277 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $359 −$351 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $154 −$150 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $79 −$77 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $302 +$86 +29%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $85 +$123 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $100 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $150 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 26¢ $137 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $409 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $511 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 29¢ $204 11h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 64¢ $351 11h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $1,116 20h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $254 47h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $165 47h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 47h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $236 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $144 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $126 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $102 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $137 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $112 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $72 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $478 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $2,004 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $205 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $210 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $180 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.18 · official $154.18 (match) · 267 history records