Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

8C 0x8c05…71cd other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$3 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate47%7W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$103per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit11%portable

Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$41

7 days−$27

14 days−$27

30 days−$27

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-13.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-4.8%	-13.8%	47%	40%	-11.1%
≤30d	15	-4.8%	-13.8%	47%	40%	-11.1%
≤90d	15	-4.8%	-13.8%	47%	40%	-11.1%
all	15	-4.8%	-13.8%	47%	40%	-11.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.8%	40%	-11.1%
10%	-22.1%	27%	-19.6%
15%	-29.6%	27%	-27.4%
20%	-36.5%	20%	-34.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +27% → late -33% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$37 vs −$36 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.91 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$468

Realized−$3

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses7 / 8

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)15 / 19

History coverage9d

Avg bet$103

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	85¢	84¢	$300	$298	−$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	67¢	66¢	$76	$75	−$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	84¢	84¢	$70	$70	−$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	50¢	48¢	$26	$25	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$41	−$41	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$146	−$2	-2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$284	+$32	+11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$147	−$146	-99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$41	+$29	+72%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 25	$40	−$1	-3%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$8	−$4	-43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$363	+$67	+19%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$71	+$33	+47%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$114	−$82	-72%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$20	+$26	+128%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$111	+$10	+9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$87	+$62	+72%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 19	$6	−$1	-9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	84¢	$71	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	67¢	$77	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	61¢	$143	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	50¢	$26	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$303	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$316	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	44¢	$9	4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	89¢	$129	4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	48¢	$32	5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	25h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	83¢	$39	25h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$5	25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	88¢	$43	25h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	84¢	$40	26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	88¢	$111	26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$23	26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$122	26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$41	26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	56¢	$147	26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$430	26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$157	40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$207	40h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	24¢	$31	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$8	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$32	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$114	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$30	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$20	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$111	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $467.95 · official $467.44 (match) · 44 history records