Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8C 0x8c06…b98a sports 369 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,796 (-2%) realized −$2,089 · open −$707
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%217W / 142L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$640est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,081
7 days+$534
14 days−$285
30 days+$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$3,179
world 25% +$1,844
other 14% −$1,456
crypto 2% −$46
finance 1% −$141
tech 0% +$4
weather 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +13.0% +2.2% 77% 62% -7.7%
≤30d 62 -10.8% -19.3% 55% 39% -8.9%
≤90d 359 -12.8% -21.1% 60% 40% -11.3%
all 359 -12.8% -21.1% 60% 40% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 40% -11.3%
10% -28.7% 27% -19.8%
15% -35.5% 19% -27.6%
20% -41.9% 12% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$134 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1,507
Realized−$2,089
Unrealized−$707
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses217 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$640
Open positions10
Markets (closed)359 / 369
History coverage80d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 35¢ 56¢ $175 $278 +$102 (+59%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 82¢ 81¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 61¢ 62¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 74¢ 72¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $145 $11 −$134 (-92%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $170 $11 −$159 (-93%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $50 $7 −$43 (-86%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Yes 57¢ 1¢ $278 $5 −$273 (-98%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? Yes 49¢ 1¢ $196 $4 −$192 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,336 +$829 +62%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,528 −$897 -59%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 +$5 +2%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,007 +$316 +31%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $513 −$507 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$60 +59%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 +$97 +96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $503 +$139 +28%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1,004 +$171 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,458 +$494 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,154 −$2,690 -65%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,512 +$360 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $998 +$236 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $532 +$468 +88%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $173 −$29 -17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,704 +$64 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2,208 −$38 -2%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,108 +$5 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $450 +$313 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $776 +$104 +13%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $388 +$178 +46%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $300 +$86 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,003 +$107 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,829 +$761 +42%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $1,029 −$394 -38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $944 −$108 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $620 +$738 +119%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $614 −$263 -43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $805 −$193 -24%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 04 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 04 $243 −$1 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $128 −$123 -96%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 03 $17 −$17 -98%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis (BO5) - Esports World Cup South Am Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 03 $12 −$11 -94%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs Galions (+2.5) Jun 03 $207 +$135 +65%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 03 $193 +$10 +5%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $440 −$439 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $1,494 +$111 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $14 +$11 +84%
LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs Jun 02 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 02 $333 +$19 +6%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $342 −$340 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $111 +$31 +28%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $738 +$699 +95%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2PM ET Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,007 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,336 18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $310 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $74 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $10 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $84 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $36 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $1 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $3 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 32¢ $70 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 29¢ $25 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $19 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $101 35h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $209 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $55 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $3 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $6 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $5 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $6 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $79 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $100 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $50 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $100 36h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 36h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $14 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $361 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,507.25 · official $1,507.25 (match) · 1732 history records