Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:12:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c0b…f0fb world 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses bigP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$316 (+0%) realized +$272 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$1,764per market
Trades / day168.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% −$2,405
politics 4% +$6,577
other 2% +$158
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +4.1% -5.8% 55% 24% -2.2%
≤30d 38 +4.1% -5.8% 55% 24% -2.2%
≤90d 38 +4.1% -5.8% 55% 24% -2.2%
all 38 +4.1% -5.8% 55% 24% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover168.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 24% -2.2%
10% -14.8% 16% -11.6%
15% ← realistic here -23.1% 13% -20.1%
20% -30.6% 8% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$2,726) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$494 vs −$365 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,825
Realized+$272
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)38 / 50
History coverage7d
Avg bet$1,764
Trades / day168.7
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 79¢ $566 $594 +$29 (+5%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 98¢ $238 $246 +$8 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 84¢ 95¢ $210 $237 +$27 (+13%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $166 $171 +$5 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 50¢ $170 $168 −$2 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 70¢ 72¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $167 $136 −$32 (-19%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $99 $104 +$6 (+6%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 10¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-58%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 44¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chi Ossé win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary? Jun 20 $118 −$118 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $400 +$43 +11%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $5,422 −$291 -5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $331 +$121 +36%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $7,614 −$193 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 19 $2,726 −$1 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $220 +$30 +14%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $160 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $3,947 +$182 +5%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $3,190 −$231 -7%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 18 $3,984 +$1,688 +42%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $2,629 +$116 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $194 −$153 -79%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $390 −$67 -17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2,412 −$1,113 -46%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $106 +$73 +69%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $5,095 −$56 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $1,000 +$7,361 +736%
Will Vance Bostic win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primar Jun 16 $2,472 −$784 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $4,747 +$221 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3,182 −$1,700 -53%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $436 +$37 +9%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $723 +$39 +5%
Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1,000 −$500 -50%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4,764 −$669 -14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $55 +$29 +53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $287 +$32 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,225 +$110 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,485 −$30 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4,349 −$138 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,155 +$82 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $161 +$48 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1,615 +$127 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $1,194 −$31 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $192 +$2 +1%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $281 +$12 +4%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $239 +$11 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 13m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $170 23m
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 40m
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $150 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 4¢ $13 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,824.89 · official $1,824.71 (match) · 1143 history records