Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:56:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8C 0x8c0c…4b7b crypto 956 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,372 (-11%) realized −$2,372 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%371W / 585L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day32.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$318
14 days+$247
30 days−$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,088
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +2.0% -7.7% 53% 40% -0.7%
≤30d 266 -8.3% -17.0% 50% 42% -13.6%
≤90d 892 -9.7% -18.3% 39% 35% -22.6%
all 956 -8.9% -17.6% 39% 35% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 35% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 32% -29.7%
15% -32.7% 26% -36.5%
20% -39.3% 22% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,372
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses371 / 585
Open positions0
Markets (closed)956 / 956
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day32.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 956 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $92 +$95 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $17 −$16 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $129 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $112 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $126 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $19 −$10 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $145 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $40 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $147 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $40 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $40 +$18 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$7 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $120 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$10 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$12 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $18 −$9 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$7 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $139 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$19 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $101 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$32 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$12 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $187 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records