Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:12:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c0d…a3ce
sports · 254 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$83 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$67 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$202
Realized−$67
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses83 / 114
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions57
Markets (closed)197 / 254
History coverage92d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 57 History 197 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$58
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 34¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 54¢ 66¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+22%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 65¢ 86¢ $7 $10 +$2 (+33%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 36¢ $5 $7 +$3 (+56%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 89¢ 90¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 29¢ 37¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 77¢ 91¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 86¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 65¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 81¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-28%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 62¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-34%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? No 69¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+42%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -29%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $4 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$2 -25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -59%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -29%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $38 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $1 $0 -38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -50%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +95%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 10 $6 −$4 -67%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +86%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $4 $0 +7%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $11 +$2 +16%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$6 -74%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $57 −$4 -8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -66%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +45%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $2 $0 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $54 −$33 -62%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $8 −$4 -50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $1 $0 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$11 +530%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 90% −$223
world 5% −$80
other 2% +$131
politics 1% −$13
crypto 1% +$95
tech 0% +$4
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 5m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 8m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 8m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 9m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 9m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 91¢ $1 9m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 12m
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 14m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 14m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 18m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 56m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 56m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 19% -28.6%
≤30d 96 +1.9% -7.8% 31% 14% -5.6%
≤90d 190 +4.9% -5.0% 40% 31% -13.2%
all 197 +9.9% -0.6% 42% 34% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 34% -10.2%
10% -10.1% 30% -18.8%
15% -18.8% 29% -26.6%
20% -26.7% 26% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.94 · official $200.13 (match) · 1753 history records