Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c0f…0398 other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$13
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$13
other 27% −$16
sports 17% −$5
crypto 7% −$5
world 5% −$1
economics 5% −$2
culture 5% −$6
tech 3% −$4
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -1.1% -10.5% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 62 -0.8% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 120 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 136 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 116
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage98d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 95¢ 95¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $56 −$2 -3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $54 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $218 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $109 −$1 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $57 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 14 $37 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $444 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $164 −$2 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $123 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $207 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $44 −$2 -4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $100 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 09 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $44 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $176 −$1 -1%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 05 $24 $0 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 05 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $165 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 04 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $38 −$1 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 03 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $44 $0 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $210 −$2 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $46 $0 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $53 $0 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 31 $96 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $103 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $62 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $220 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $98 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 28 $109 −$1 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? May 27 $47 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 27 $165 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $485 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $54 2h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 6h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 6h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $54 6h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $54 12h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $45 13h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $45 21h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $57 22h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 30h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $55 30h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $57 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $37 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $37 44h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $54 44h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $62 2d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $62 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $49 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $22 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $27 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $58 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $29 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $29 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $56 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $57 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.47 · official $9.47 (match) · 457 history records