Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8C 0x8c10…d7b3 other 1289 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 131d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$24,422 (-4%) realized −$24,368 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate98%1252W / 31L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$423per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$5,738now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$38
14 days+$64
30 days+$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$16,398
sports 22% +$152
politics 12% −$2,201
world 10% −$443
finance 5% +$122
tech 1% +$41
economics 1% +$18
crypto 1% +$169
culture 1% +$29
weather 0% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +0.3% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 167 +7.9% -2.4% 97% 4% -9.0%
≤90d 996 +2.5% -7.3% 98% 2% -9.0%
all 1283 +1.4% -8.3% 98% 3% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 3% -12.6%
10% -17.0% 2% -21.0%
15% -25.1% 1% -28.6%
20% -32.4% 1% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$850 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$5,738
Realized−$24,368
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1252 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1283 / 1289
History coverage131d ⚠
Avg bet$423
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 71¢ 69¢ $4,938 $4,855 −$83 (-2%)
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 64¢ 70¢ $320 $350 +$30 (+9%)
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 72¢ 73¢ $338 $344 +$7 (+2%)
Will Qatar go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 99¢ 91¢ $118 $109 −$9 (-8%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 84¢ 86¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? No 71¢ 74¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $565 −$138 -24%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Jun 17 $383 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) Jun 17 $492 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Jun 17 $222 $0 +0%
Will Jordan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 17 $1,300 +$2 +0%
Will Senegal go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 16 $276 +$13 +5%
Will Thomas Frank be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $310 +$3 +1%
Will Filipe Luis be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $162 +$1 +1%
Will Oliver Glasner be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $136 +$2 +1%
Will Cesc Fabregas be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Mauricio Pochettino be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Andoni Iraola be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Will Zinedine Zidane be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $174 +$2 +1%
Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $356 +$5 +1%
Will Antonio Conte be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $337 +$3 +1%
Will Maurizio Sarri be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Zlatan Ibrahimovic be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Will Pep Guardiola be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $232 +$2 +1%
Will Marco Silva be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Xavi Hernandez be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Dodi Lukébakio be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Romelu Lukaku be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $49 $0 +0%
Will Kaoru Mitoma score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4,131 +$9 +0%
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $868 +$1 +0%
Will Jeremie Frimpong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,172 +$1 +0%
Will João Pedro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $114 $0 +0%
Will Keito Nakamura score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $152 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $192 $0 +0%
Will Yann Bisseck score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $994 +$1 +0%
Will Florida Smash finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball Jun 13 $166 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 Jun 13 $317 +$3 +1%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will California Black Bears finish in 1st place at the Major League Pi Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $3,046 +$6 +0%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will "Pope" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 13 $124 +$1 +1%
Will "AI" be said 50+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podc Jun 13 $133 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Paraguay go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 13 $152 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $457 +$9 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $1,119 +$25 +2%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by June 5? Jun 10 $6,784 +$6 +0%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 10 $4,439 +$8 +0%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5? Jun 10 $8,065 +$8 +0%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5? Jun 10 $6,722 +$11 +0%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 10 $316 +$48 +15%
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 09 $559 +$1 +0%
Will Saracens win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Reds win the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final? Jun 06 $32 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $427 2h
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? BUY No 100¢ $222 19h
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? BUY No 100¢ $200 19h
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) BUY No 100¢ $492 19h
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? BUY No 100¢ $383 19h
Will Jordan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 100¢ $1,300 31h
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 72¢ $341 32h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 39h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 39h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 39h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 39h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 39h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 39h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 39h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 39h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 39h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 39h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 39h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 39h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 39h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 39h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 40h
Will Senegal go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 99¢ $45 40h
Will Senegal go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 95¢ $231 40h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 41h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 41h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 41h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 41h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 41h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $88 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,738.39 · official $5,739.09 (match) · 3500 history records