Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:55:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c10…4efa other 240 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 226L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$38
sports 22% −$19
politics 10% −$7
culture 8% −$8
economics 5% $0
crypto 5% −$4
world 2% −$1
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 240 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)240 / 240
History coverage131d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 240 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $455 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $603 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $114 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $276 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $274 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $145 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $309 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $397 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $121 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $289 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $491 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $173 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $225 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $186 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $124 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $273 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $383 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $206 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $133 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $597 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 23m
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 3h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 5h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 7h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 8h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 9h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 10h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $2 10h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $53 13h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $55 14h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 15h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 16h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 18h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 19h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 21h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 23h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 26h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 28h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 30h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 40h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 42h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 43h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 45h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1315 history records