Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8c10…ab50 crypto 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$387 (+5%) realized +$297 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%54W / 36L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$725now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$36
14 days+$53
30 days+$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% +$484
crypto 14% −$351
other 9% +$16
tech 7% +$23
world 3% +$48
economics 0% +$3
politics 0% −$1
sports 0% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +36.0% +23.0% 67% 56% -4.7%
≤30d 88 +5.3% -4.7% 61% 49% -6.4%
≤90d 90 +3.0% -6.8% 60% 48% -7.1%
all 90 +3.0% -6.8% 60% 48% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 48% -7.1%
10% -15.7% 36% -16.0%
15% -23.9% 30% -24.1%
20% -31.4% 24% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$39 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$725
Realized+$297
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses54 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)90 / 100
History coverage46d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 52¢ 56¢ $300 $329 +$29 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 64¢ 80¢ $200 $249 +$49 (+25%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 78¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 39¢ 78¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+99%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 58¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $21 +$3 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 +$53 +48%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$49 +473%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 12 $404 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$4 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 3? Jun 04 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? May 31 $20 +$6 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $102 +$54 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29? May 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 28? May 28 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 28 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 27 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 27 $2 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 28? May 27 $425 −$420 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 28? May 27 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? May 27 $52 −$50 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $383 +$38 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $202 +$48 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 26 $2 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 26 $2 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $103 +$109 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 26 $2 +$3 +149%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 59¢ $285 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $24 14h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 47h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $21 47h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 47h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 39¢ $10 47h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 18¢ $21 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 47h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 47h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 47h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 2d
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? SELL Yes 77¢ $411 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $725.14 · official $725.20 (match) · 199 history records