Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:29:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

8C 0x8c11…cfaf other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$1,593 (+17%) realized +$1,593 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$2,326per market

Trades / day5.1pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+9.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+20.8%	+9.3%	75%	75%	+10.8%
≤30d	4	+20.8%	+9.3%	75%	75%	+10.8%
≤90d	4	+20.8%	+9.3%	75%	75%	+10.8%
all	4	+20.8%	+9.3%	75%	75%	+10.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.1 tr/day

realistic slip~12%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+9.3%	75%	+10.8%
10% ← realistic here	-1.2%	25%	+0.2%
15%	-10.7%	25%	-9.5%
20%	-19.5%	25%	-18.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 85% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +21% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$706 vs −$31 · ×22.42 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×67.25 per $1 lost it wins $67.25

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$1,593

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage2d

Avg bet$2,326

Trades / day5.1

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$3,580	+$541	+15%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$2,313	+$1,262	+55%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$2,003	+$314	+16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$1,407	−$31	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	94¢	$4,121	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	49¢	$61	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	82¢	$3,519	2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	64¢	$2,313	24h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$2,317	29h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	86¢	$2,003	29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	82¢	$1,376	38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	83¢	$1,407	39h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records