Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c13…6ba4 other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$400 (-27%) realized −$259 · open −$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$369
sports 27% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-65.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -62.2% -65.8% 19% 12% -43.0%
≤30d 16 -62.2% -65.8% 19% 12% -43.0%
≤90d 16 -62.2% -65.8% 19% 12% -43.0%
all 16 -62.2% -65.8% 19% 12% -43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.8% 12% -43.0%
10% -69.0% 12% -48.5%
15% -72.0% 12% -53.4%
20% -74.8% 6% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -90% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$30 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$496
Realized−$259
Unrealized−$141
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions8
Markets (closed)16 / 24
History coverage6d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $484 $396 −$88 (-18%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 77¢ 60¢ $38 $30 −$8 (-21%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 27¢ 20¢ $27 $20 −$7 (-26%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 59¢ 40¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-33%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 19 $73 −$14 -19%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$36 -72%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $27 −$2 -8%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$38 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 3m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 59¢ $30 19m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 50¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $39 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 47h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 9¢ $9 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 32¢ $33 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 1¢ $3 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 4¢ $10 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 8¢ $16 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 56¢ $28 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 32¢ $16 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 64¢ $32 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $210 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $24 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 31¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 52¢ $16 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $495.96 · official $499.46 (match) · 59 history records