Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c1b…1a50 crypto 209 markets active 2h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,724 (-17%) realized −$2,721 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%64W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$132
14 days−$132
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$2,157
sports 15% −$1,037
politics 2% −$158
other 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -83.3% -84.9% 17% 0% -60.4%
≤90d 39 -47.3% -52.3% 31% 26% -44.1%
all 208 -24.8% -32.0% 31% 28% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 28% -31.2%
10% -38.5% 25% -37.8%
15% -44.4% 20% -43.8%
20% -49.9% 20% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$51 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2,721
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses64 / 144
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)208 / 209
History coverage539d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 122 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $77 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $110 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 23 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 23 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 23 $57 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 23 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 23 $159 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 23 $69 +$15 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 23 $52 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 23 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 18 $3 +$3 +95%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 04 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 27 $7 −$7 -95%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $7 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 27 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 18 $264 −$186 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 18 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 18 $100 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 18 $100 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 18 $6 +$10 +161%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 15 $74 +$154 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 14 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Feb 24 $1,487 −$1,487 -100%
Spurs vs. Pistons Feb 24 $500 +$488 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Feb 22 $395 −$389 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Feb 22 $268 +$132 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 22 $500 −$492 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 22 $141 −$140 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 22 $50 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 22 $100 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 22 $71 −$70 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $25 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 100¢ $110 11d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $50 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $41 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $26 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $51 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $42 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $14 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $144 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $16 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $76 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $78 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.56 · official $1.56 (match) · 438 history records