Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8c1c…66e9 other 129 markets active 3d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+18%) realized +$45 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%59W / 57L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$24
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$65
other 42% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -9.9% -18.5% 41% 36% +0.8%
≤30d 116 +5.3% -4.7% 51% 46% +6.2%
≤90d 116 +5.3% -4.7% 51% 46% +6.2%
all 116 +5.3% -4.7% 51% 46% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 46% +6.2%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 43% -4.0%
15% -22.2% 41% -13.2%
20% -29.8% 34% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses59 / 57
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)116 / 129
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 21¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+219%)
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 40¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Any Team Participate in 3+ Penalty Shootouts in the Knockout Phase? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 +$1 +50%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$8 +158%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $5 +$23 +442%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +114%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $6 +$4 +67%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 +$6 +92%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +76%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 +$18 +442%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +134%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Jun 17 $2 +$3 +165%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +119%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 +$5 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 +$3 +37%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$11 +206%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 +$2 +54%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 26¢ $3 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $4 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 18¢ $5 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $5 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 38¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $6 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $2 5d
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $2 5d
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 5d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $2 5d
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.52 · official $17.55 (match) · 256 history records