Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8C 0x8c20…bd85 crypto 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$232 (+9%) realized +$267 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%102W / 145L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day134.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$29
sports 35% +$56
other 29% +$8
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 247 -2.1% -11.4% 41% 39% -6.0%
≤30d 247 -2.1% -11.4% 41% 39% -6.0%
≤90d 247 -2.1% -11.4% 41% 39% -6.0%
all 247 -2.1% -11.4% 41% 39% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 39% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 36% -15.0%
15% -27.6% 32% -23.2%
20% -34.7% 28% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$267
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses102 / 145
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions20
Markets (closed)247 / 267
History coverage6d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day134.5
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 69¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+62%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 65¢ 98¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 38¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+48%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Yes 24¢ 64¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+169%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 30¢ 16¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-49%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-44%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-76%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Yes 33¢ 9¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-73%)
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Australia 8¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-76%)
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score No 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $10 −$10 -93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 26 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 $0 -0%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $15 +$8 +52%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -26%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 −$16 -62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$17 -57%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 25 $15 −$7 -44%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 25 $31 −$28 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $17 −$7 -42%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $76 −$41 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$10 -60%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $30 −$10 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $13 −$11 -89%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 −$10 -51%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$7 -48%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 −$4 -12%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 −$3 -30%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$11 +105%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$21 +206%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $15 +$17 +109%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 +$30 +291%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$11 +109%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 24 $5 +$6 +108%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$19 +75%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +55%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 $0 -12%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $35 +$9 +27%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $15 −$13 -85%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $5 +$29 +569%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $40 +$29 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 56m
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 2¢ $1 56m
Paraguay vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 30¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) SELL Netherlands 5¢ $1 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 29¢ $5 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 50¢ $5 7h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $15 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 8h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 19h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 38¢ $9 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 65¢ $12 19h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $5 19h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 29¢ $10 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 19h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 19h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 19h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 19h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $10 19h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 20h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 44¢ $10 20h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 56¢ $19 20h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 65¢ $15 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 20h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.80 · official $185.84 (match) · 849 history records