Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8C 0x8c27…c6a8 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,589per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$37
other 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤30d 1 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤90d 6 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.0%
all 11 +0.9% -8.7% 82% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -17.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$20 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage222d
Avg bet$1,589
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Jun 22 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 09 $29 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 09 $30 $0 +1%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 26 $58 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 05 $58 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 24 $113 −$3 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 26 $18,591 −$37 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Jan 19 $9 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $14 86d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 99¢ $15 87d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $30 87d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $28 99d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 99¢ $29 103d
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $58 104d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $55 115d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $58 117d
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? SELL No 96¢ $110 117d
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $113 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $18,554 147d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $18,591 147d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 98¢ $9 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.00 · official $66.00 (match) · 23 history records