Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c2b…ec21
sports · 248 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$87 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$58 · open −$27
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$857
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses43 / 141
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions53
Markets (closed)184 / 248
History coverage100d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 53 History 184 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$167
7 days−$167
14 days−$167
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 64¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 46¢ $75 $79 +$4 (+6%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $48 $51 +$3 (+6%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+21%)
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+36%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 45¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 28¢ 28¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-7%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 31¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will Chip Keating win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 16¢ 2¢ $73 $8 −$65 (-89%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Honor of Kings: XQG Esports Club vs WanZhen Esports Club - Game 2 Winn Jun 12 $2 −$2 -82%
Honor of Kings: ANK Gaming vs BanMei Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -91%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Portsmouth FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -70%
Bruins vs. Capitals Jun 12 $1 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: K5 Esport vs Hasib Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -47%
Game Handicap: 67 (-1.5) vs Lightning Warriors (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Rainbow Six Siege: SIX7EVEN vs Lightning Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Rainbow Six Siege: SIX7EVEN vs Lightning Warriors (BO3) - Asia-Pacif Jun 12 $2 −$1 -42%
Honor of Kings: ANK Gaming vs BanMei Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 14? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Function Kyoto vs EgiS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $28 −$22 -79%
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 9°C on March 13? Jun 12 $2 +$9 +401%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: EgiS (-1.5) vs Team Function Kyoto (+1.5) Jun 12 $25 −$20 -81%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 1 Manchester United FC? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 1 - 2 Manchester United FC? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Anios vs 6Targets Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $55 −$39 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 3 - 1 Manchester United FC? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 1 - 3 FC Bayern München? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on Mar Jun 12 $13 $0 -1%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% +$72
sports 40% −$53
politics 3% −$65
weather 3% −$30
crypto 1% −$8
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Türk BUY 17¢ $2 3h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Türk BUY 19¢ $10 3h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 26¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 3h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Canada w BUY 16¢ $11 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Korea BUY 7¢ $4 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- BUY 4¢ $3 17h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND W BUY 9¢ $2 17h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Spread: Scot BUY 4¢ $4 17h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will BUY 9¢ $5 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $2 18h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY 21¢ $2 18h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY 15¢ $2 18h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $8 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 18h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 25h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 SELL Over 57¢ $10 25h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 25h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 25h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -65.2% -68.5% 6% 6% -46.8%
≤30d 78 -65.2% -68.5% 6% 6% -46.8%
≤90d 149 -40.6% -46.2% 12% 10% -49.9%
all 184 -11.7% -20.1% 23% 22% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 22% -14.1%
10% -27.8% 20% -22.3%
15% -34.8% 19% -29.8%
20% -41.2% 17% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $856.76 · official $903.48 · 734 history records