Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c2b…aacb crypto 80 markets active 15h ago coverage 629d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$264 (-7%) realized −$262 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%27W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$70
14 days−$70
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$109
sports 36% −$105
crypto 26% −$288
politics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -51.1% -55.7% 23% 23% -15.6%
≤30d 22 -51.1% -55.7% 23% 23% -15.6%
≤90d 61 -35.0% -41.2% 31% 30% -27.0%
all 79 -29.2% -36.0% 34% 29% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 29% -16.8%
10% -42.1% 27% -24.8%
15% -47.7% 25% -32.0%
20% -52.8% 22% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$22 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

629d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$262
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses27 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage629d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$35 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$117 -57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$12 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $108 +$118 +109%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $316 +$138 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 15 $100 −$73 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 15 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 15 $130 +$68 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 15 $214 −$208 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 15 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 03 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 03 $5 +$11 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 03 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 03 $6 +$15 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 03 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 03 $9 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 27 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 27 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 27 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 27 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 27 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 27 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 27 $18 +$25 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 17h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 39h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 39h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 39h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $87 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 32¢ $51 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $152 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $57 4d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $316 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $27 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $100 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $100 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.67 · official $11.67 (match) · 152 history records