Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8C 0x8c2f…d8c2 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2,238 (+28%) realized +$2,004 · open +$234
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1,129per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,269
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +32.3% +19.7% 80% 60% +7.5%
≤30d 5 +32.3% +19.7% 80% 60% +7.5%
≤90d 5 +32.3% +19.7% 80% 60% +7.5%
all 5 +32.3% +19.7% 80% 60% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.7% 60% +7.5%
10% +8.3% 40% -2.8%
15% -2.2% 40% -12.2%
20% -11.8% 20% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$330 vs −$286 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.63 per $1 lost it wins $4.63
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2,593
Realized+$2,004
Unrealized+$234
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,129
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 55¢ 100¢ $1,389 $2,525 +$1,135 (+82%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ 4¢ $970 $68 −$901 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $500 +$480 +96%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,192 −$286 -13%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,463 +$729 +50%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,352 +$111 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $980 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $1,408 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $497 12h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $3 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 57¢ $1,906 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $2,192 3d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $2,192 3d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 66¢ $1,463 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $1,352 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,592.80 · official $2,592.80 (match) · 13 history records