Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:51:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8C 0x8c31…4b53 crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$151 (+12%) realized +$151 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate80%16W / 4L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$150
economics 24% −$4
other 6% +$1
sports 1% +$1
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 0% -5.1%
≤30d 1 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 0% -5.1%
≤90d 4 +3.3% -6.5% 100% 0% -7.1%
all 20 +12.8% +2.0% 80% 30% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 30% +2.5%
10% -7.7% 25% -7.3%
15% -16.6% 20% -16.3%
20% -24.8% 10% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×10.41 per $1 lost it wins $10.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses16 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage137d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 21 $75 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 24 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Mar 25 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $69 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 7? Mar 13 $66 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 07 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 27? Mar 06 $15 $0 +3%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $48 +$2 +3%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 18 $5 $0 +10%
Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? Feb 15 $40 +$7 +17%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21? Feb 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 12 $236 +$11 +5%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 12 $244 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12AM ET Feb 04 $122 +$122 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY No 98¢ $80 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $75 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 62d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $69 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $14 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $14 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $9 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $5 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $66 106d
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $65 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 115d
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21? SELL Yes $5 122d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 54¢ $0 123d
Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the SELL Yes $5 123d
Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the SELL Yes $0 124d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 47¢ $5 124d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 97¢ $48 126d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 126d
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? SELL No 94¢ $47 126d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 43¢ $5 126d
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21? SELL Yes $4 126d
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? BUY No 80¢ $40 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.24 · official $80.24 (match) · 60 history records