trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 25% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 15 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 53% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 53% | 0% | -8.9% |
| all | 29 | +2.5% | -7.3% | 62% | 7% | -7.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.3% | 7% | -7.5% |
| 10% | -16.2% | 7% | -16.3% |
| 15% | -24.3% | 3% | -24.4% |
| 20% | -31.7% | 3% | -31.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | $52 | $52 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-16%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 25 | $55 | −$2 | -3% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $53 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 24 | $33 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 23 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 03 | $57 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 03 | $63 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 03 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 31 | $58 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 31 | $6 | $0 | -6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 30 | $46 | +$2 | +4% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 30 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 28 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 28 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 27 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 26 | $50 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Mar 21 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? | Mar 20 | $27 | −$3 | -12% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 17 | $27 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? | Mar 17 | $17 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? | Mar 12 | $16 | $0 | +3% |
| Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? | Mar 12 | $27 | $0 | +1% |
| Kings vs. Nuggets | Mar 07 | $21 | +$7 | +33% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February | Mar 05 | $8 | +$11 | +133% |