Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c33…1a24 crypto 394 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$110 (+2%) realized +$148 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate68%269W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day111.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$317
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 393 +5.0% -5.0% 68% 68% -14.4%
≤30d 393 +5.0% -5.0% 68% 68% -14.4%
≤90d 393 +5.0% -5.0% 68% 68% -14.4%
all 393 +5.0% -5.0% 68% 68% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 68% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 68% -22.6%
15% -22.4% 18% -30.1%
20% -30.0% 4% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$148
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses269 / 124
Open positions1
Markets (closed)393 / 394
History coverage5d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day111.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 75¢ 36¢ $75 $36 −$38 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $140 −$40 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $145 −$45 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $76 +$24 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $75 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $137 −$37 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $75 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $145 −$45 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $123 −$23 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $151 −$51 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $80 −$70 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $134 −$34 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $145 −$45 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $153 −$53 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $74 +$26 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $130 −$30 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $76 +$24 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $75 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $73 +$27 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $146 −$46 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $157 −$57 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $71 +$29 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $146 −$46 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $79 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $147 −$47 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $74 +$26 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $76 +$24 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$3 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $53 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $22 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $65 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $17 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $19 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $19 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $70 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $69 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $76 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $75 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $62 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $34 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $23 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $54 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $70 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $22 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $22 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $22 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $72 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.50 · official $15.50 · 922 history records