Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c33…433f other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-10%) realized −$11 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$47
crypto 11% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -29.1% -35.9% 36% 36% -23.0%
≤30d 12 -26.8% -33.8% 33% 33% -22.3%
≤90d 12 -26.8% -33.8% 33% 33% -22.3%
all 12 -26.8% -33.8% 33% 33% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 33% -22.3%
10% -40.1% 33% -29.7%
15% -45.9% 33% -36.5%
20% -51.2% 33% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -84% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage8d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 38¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$14 +68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$16 +104%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +138%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 +$19 +68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $16 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.54 · official $12.15 (match) · 26 history records