Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:41:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c34…2e80 other 60 markets active 3h ago coverage 51d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$132 (-0%) realized −$620 · open +$488
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate58%38W / 28L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,988per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$6,666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$26,563
crypto 18% +$36
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -43.7% -49.1% 50% 10% -9.0%
≤30d 45 -23.6% -30.8% 60% 9% -23.8%
≤90d 66 -29.6% -36.3% 58% 6% -24.2%
all 66 -29.6% -36.3% 58% 6% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.3% 6% -24.2%
10% ← realistic here -42.4% 3% -31.4%
15% -48.0% 3% -38.1%
20% -53.1% 3% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$5,081) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -35% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$1,010 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$6,666
Realized−$620
Unrealized+$488
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses38 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions32
Markets (closed)66 / 60
History coverage51d
Avg bet$2,988
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,621 $5,604 −$17 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 23¢ $17 $233 +$216 (+1277%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 21¢ $17 $212 +$195 (+1151%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $17 $112 +$95 (+563%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $17 $104 +$87 (+515%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $17 $61 +$45 (+263%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $17 $57 +$40 (+239%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $17 $51 +$34 (+203%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $17 $40 +$23 (+137%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+41%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-31%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $10 −$7 (-43%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $6 −$11 (-67%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $5 −$12 (-73%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $4 −$13 (-79%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $3 −$14 (-85%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $3 −$14 (-85%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-91%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-91%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 28 $1,961 +$29 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $5,558 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $91 +$99 +108%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $51 +$6 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5,466 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $5,314 +$85 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5,297 +$67 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 23 $3,001 +$11 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5,200 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $5,301 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $4,999 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4,984 +$16 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $321 +$19 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5,201 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5,250 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,402 −$15 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $21 +$53 +257%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $681 +$24 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,122 +$48 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $5,081 −$5,081 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2,720 +$47 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2,230 +$20 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $2,693 +$96 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2,685 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,912 +$249 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $4,500 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $6,289 −$1,623 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,000 −$14 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $12,506 −$6,247 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 01 $3,308 −$3,308 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 01 $2,852 −$2,852 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 01 $6,074 +$55 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $6,201 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $6,229 +$12 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $5,973 +$22 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $6,001 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? May 23 $6,000 +$6 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $1,088 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $519 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $499 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $450 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $529 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $700 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $502 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $653 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $601 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $3 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $8 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $9 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,991 18h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $743 30h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $678 30h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $540 30h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,342 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 41h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,666.30 · official $6,663.48 (match) · 779 history records