Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:24:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8C 0x8c35…ce11 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$186 (+9%) realized +$115 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$1,436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$453
sports 9% −$173
crypto 3% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.8% +1.2% 67% 67% +11.8%
≤30d 4 +19.7% +8.3% 75% 75% +17.2%
≤90d 4 +19.7% +8.3% 75% 75% +17.2%
all 4 +19.7% +8.3% 75% 75% +17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.3% 75% +17.2%
10% -2.0% 75% +6.0%
15% -11.5% 50% -4.3%
20% -20.2% 25% -13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$83 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.41 per $1 lost it wins $3.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,436
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)4 / 14
History coverage8d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 97¢ $300 $482 +$182 (+61%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $194 $222 +$28 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $200 $161 −$39 (-20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $108 $143 +$35 (+32%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $117 $142 +$25 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $133 $89 −$44 (-33%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $58 $65 +$7 (+13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $55 $46 −$9 (-16%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 2¢ $100 $10 −$90 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $85 −$83 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $293 +$89 +30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$88 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 17h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $82 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $210 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $172 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $293 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $290 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $57 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $60 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $111 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $120 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $137 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $199 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,436.03 · official $1,436.03 (match) · 28 history records