Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c39…a41d
crypto · 265 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$392 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$709 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35
Realized−$709
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses124 / 139
Open positions2
Markets (closed)263 / 265
History coverage4d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day315.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 263 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,108
7 days−$709
14 days−$709
30 days−$709
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 54¢ 56¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Up 49¢ 44¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Up 0¢ 42¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $416 +$15 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $123 −$41 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $70 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $172 +$9 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $47 +$8 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $236 −$9 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$13 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $115 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $57 −$11 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $94 −$13 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $270 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$17 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$19 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $357 +$102 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $168 +$12 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $136 +$22 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$6 +91%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $73 +$15 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $73 −$1 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $79 −$18 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $66 +$6 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$32 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $145 −$4 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $157 +$29 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $36 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $43 −$10 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$5 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$4 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $86 +$4 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $190 −$28 -15%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$2 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $88 −$6 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $24 +$15 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$9 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $168 +$30 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$703
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $17 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $38 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $20 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $23 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 263 -6.2% -15.1% 47% 41% -14.1%
≤30d 263 -6.2% -15.1% 47% 41% -14.1%
≤90d 263 -6.2% -15.1% 47% 41% -14.1%
all 263 -6.2% -15.1% 47% 41% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover315.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 41% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 35% -22.3%
15% -30.7% 33% -29.8%
20% -37.5% 33% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.45 · official $35.43 (match) · 1604 history records