Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:00:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c3a…7c5d other 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$191 (-8%) realized −$196 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%20W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$216
sports 32% $0
crypto 12% −$1
culture 4% +$7
politics 1% −$6
economics 1% −$9
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -39.3% -45.0% 33% 33% +4.0%
≤90d 67 -33.3% -39.7% 21% 21% -22.3%
all 78 -24.0% -31.2% 26% 26% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 26% -21.4%
10% -37.8% 24% -28.9%
15% -43.8% 21% -35.8%
20% -49.3% 13% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses20 / 58
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 83
History coverage135d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $79 $85 +$6 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference? May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 20 $33 −$19 -57%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $11 +$7 +62%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $4 −$3 -71%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $8 +$6 +69%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $11 −$2 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $13 −$5 -37%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $16 −$4 -27%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on May 14 $27 +$19 +71%
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day May 14 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on May 14 $18 −$4 -21%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 14 $9 −$3 -38%
Will Trump announce Stephen Hahn as the next FDA commissioner by Decem May 14 $8 −$3 -37%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $16 −$2 -13%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 +$1 +132%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 11 $10 $0 -4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $12 −$1 -9%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $96 −$4 -4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 06 $21 −$9 -41%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $172 −$15 -9%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $48 −$5 -10%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $52 +$19 +35%
NBA Playoffs: Rockets vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5 Apr 30 $90 −$47 -52%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 30 $147 +$43 +29%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Apr 29 $96 −$20 -21%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $37 +$11 +29%
James Comey mugshot released by May 5? Apr 29 $31 −$16 -53%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $50 −$24 -48%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $85 −$13 -15%
James Comey arrested by May 15? Apr 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Apr 29 $16 −$8 -49%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $43 −$28 -65%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Apr 28 $40 −$5 -14%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 28 $25 +$9 +36%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Apr 28 $15 −$3 -19%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 27 $50 −$1 -3%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8 Apr 26 $11 −$1 -8%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig Apr 26 $11 +$19 +172%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $14 +$16 +114%
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Apr 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be grea Mar 31 $71 +$16 +23%
Will "DÁKITI" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Mar 24 $2 +$2 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $54 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $35 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 39¢ $14 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 39¢ $9 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 35¢ $14 6d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 16d
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes $5 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 19d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 96¢ $64 19d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 21d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 22d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 42¢ $28 24d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 29d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 29d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 39¢ $17 29d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 31d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $21 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 32¢ $23 32d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.85 · official $145.85 (match) · 367 history records