Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c3a…50ae crypto 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$251 (+8%) realized +$220 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%54W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$250
other 19% +$114
crypto 18% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -5.5% -14.5% 55% 51% -2.4%
≤30d 98 -5.5% -14.5% 55% 51% -2.4%
≤90d 98 -5.5% -14.5% 55% 51% -2.4%
all 98 -5.5% -14.5% 55% 51% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 51% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 46% -11.7%
15% -30.1% 41% -20.2%
20% -37.0% 31% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$20 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$220
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses54 / 44
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage6d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $60 $91 +$31 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$112 +365%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$31 +76%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$55 +67%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 +$52 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 +$45 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$15 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $201 +$33 +17%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $122 +$117 +96%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$16 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$32 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $231 +$53 +23%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $30 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $30 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 17h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $50 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $41 22h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 51¢ $51 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $51 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $81 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 28h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $101 28h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $40 40h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $41 41h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $51 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $81 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 10¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 21¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 26¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.86 · official $90.86 (match) · 233 history records