Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:52:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c3b…c677 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$6
other 27% +$2
politics 14% +$4
culture 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.4% -6.4% 60% 20% -7.2%
≤30d 12 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 8% -8.7%
≤90d 12 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 8% -8.7%
all 34 -4.8% -13.9% 50% 6% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 6% -8.3%
10% -22.1% 3% -17.0%
15% -29.7% 0% -25.1%
20% -36.6% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage305d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $100 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $49 +$7 +14%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $23 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $108 +$1 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $44 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $1 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 25 $52 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $52 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $52 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $47 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $12 −$3 -25%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $5 $0 +4%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 12 $47 +$2 +5%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $32 +$7 +24%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $40 +$4 +10%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 22 $39 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $26 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $29 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $54 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $28 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $16 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $46 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $8 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $43 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $4 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $49 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $54 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $54 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $54 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $54 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $6 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $15 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $11 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $15 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $44 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $46 25d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $6 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $52 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $46 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records