Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:18:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8C 0x8c3d…27a9 other 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%51W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$17
14 days+$18
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$45
world 26% −$33
sports 3% +$65
finance 3% +$3
politics 2% +$14
crypto 2% +$10
tech 1% −$2
economics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +27.1% +15.0% 59% 59% +0.5%
≤30d 65 +44.1% +30.4% 49% 49% +11.7%
≤90d 95 +32.0% +19.4% 46% 46% +4.9%
all 114 +28.0% +15.8% 45% 45% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.8% 45% -8.4%
10% +4.7% 45% -17.1%
15% -5.4% 44% -25.2%
20% -14.7% 42% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses51 / 63
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)114 / 133
History coverage168d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+33%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 22¢ 52¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+139%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 44¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Austria win on 2026-07-02? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 +$7 +73%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 +$30 +193%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +57%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$6 +550%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$10 +982%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$15 +147%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24h
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 24h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 27h
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.01 · official $142.46 (match) · 355 history records