Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c3e…26df politics 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 655d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$24
other 24% −$4
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 101 -15.0% -23.1% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -30.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -37.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -43.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

655d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage655d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $51 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $103 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Mar 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Mar 10 $51 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 24, 2026? Feb 06 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dominic Solanke be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
No Trump coin reaches $1b? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
MetaMask airdrop in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Breece Hall be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Davante Adams be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Drake London be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year? Dec 21 $0 $0 -5%
Will Jaxson Dart win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tetairoa McMillan win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Packers win the NFC North? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Young Boys win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Hawk Tuah token by Thanksgiving? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration? Nov 25 $0 $0 -4%
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Brandon Aiyuk be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will Andrés Ojeda win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 17 $0 $0 -0%
Will five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer sp Nov 17 $0 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 16h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 27d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 33d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 33d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $50 42d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $50 42d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 58d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 58d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $51 63d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $51 63d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 74d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 74d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 81d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 82d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 82d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 89d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 90d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? SELL No 99¢ $51 94d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $51 94d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $51 96d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $51 97d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 100d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 100d
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? SELL No 99¢ $51 102d
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? BUY No 99¢ $51 103d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 235 history records