Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c3f…d4ee other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+0%) realized +$36 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%30W / 47L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$12
other 33% +$7
politics 19% +$2
sports 11% −$7
finance 1% +$30
crypto 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.8% -12.9% 9% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 20 -1.9% -11.2% 15% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 28 -4.2% -13.3% 29% 4% -9.3%
all 77 -2.7% -12.0% 39% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 4% -9.4%
10% -20.4% 1% -18.0%
15% -28.1% 1% -26.0%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses30 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage487d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $109 $111 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $95 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $25 −$6 -25%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $163 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $149 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $226 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $171 −$7 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $186 −$4 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $176 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $150 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $160 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $177 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $177 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $129 +$2 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $85 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $158 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $155 +$3 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $152 +$30 +20%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,734 +$2 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $1,133 +$2 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $921 +$2 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $920 +$2 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,012 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $920 $0 +0%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 19 $9 $0 -1%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 12 $24 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on Jun Jun 07 $25 $0 +1%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 04 $72 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? Jun 03 $24 +$1 +5%
Starmer out before July? Jun 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files? Jun 01 $23 $0 +0%
XRP above $2.70 on May 30? May 31 $3 −$1 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $109 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $62 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $33 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $95 9h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $3 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $12 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $4 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 8¢ $2 16h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 8¢ $23 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $154 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $18 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $113 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $36 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $38 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $38 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $163 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $163 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $137 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $149 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 46¢ $74 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 46¢ $87 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.38 · official $111.38 (match) · 276 history records