Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c42…2415 world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$2
other 24% $0
tech 6% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 10 -1.4% -10.8% 40% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 10 -1.4% -10.8% 40% 0% -10.2%
all 25 +0.4% -9.1% 56% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage458d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $40 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $8 $0 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $49 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 −$3 -10%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Dec 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jake Paul fight Jorge Masvidal next? Apr 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31? Apr 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 25 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? Mar 23 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $44 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $30 35h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $1 35h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $9 35h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $40 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $38 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $38 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $9 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $9 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $18 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $32 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $32 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $20 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $7 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $0 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $14 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $6 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $2 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $7 12d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $2 14d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 15d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 15d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 15d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.74 · official $43.74 (match) · 87 history records