Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8C 0x8c42…5300 crypto 180 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%178W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$429now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$13
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$81
world 0% −$69
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 49 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 155 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.5%
all 179 -0.1% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$69 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$429
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses178 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)179 / 180
History coverage138d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $429 $429 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $428 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 24? Jun 25 $428 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $427 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $427 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? Jun 23 $426 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 22? Jun 23 $426 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? Jun 22 $425 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 21? Jun 22 $425 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 19? Jun 19 $415 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $415 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? Jun 18 $425 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $424 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 16? Jun 17 $422 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $422 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $421 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 14? Jun 15 $406 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $418 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 13? Jun 14 $261 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 13? Jun 14 $148 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 12? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 12? Jun 13 $126 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 12? Jun 13 $87 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 12? Jun 13 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $418 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 11? Jun 12 $417 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $417 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $416 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $416 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 8? Jun 09 $416 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $415 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 7? Jun 08 $349 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? Jun 08 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 6? Jun 07 $211 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 6? Jun 07 $120 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,350 on June 6? Jun 07 $80 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 5? Jun 06 $408 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $408 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? Jun 05 $405 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $405 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? Jun 04 $404 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $404 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $403 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $403 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? Jun 01 $402 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 29? May 30 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $401 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 27 $398 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26? May 26 $398 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? May 25 $397 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $429 20m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $428 8h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $428 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $427 32h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $427 43h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $426 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $426 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $425 3d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $425 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $415 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $415 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $425 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $424 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $422 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $422 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $421 10d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $15 10d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $406 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $418 11d
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $148 11d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $261 11d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $87 12d
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $18 12d
Will Solana reach $75 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $187 12d
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $126 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $418 13d
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $417 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $417 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $416 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $416 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $428.76 · official $428.76 (match) · 384 history records