Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:41:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c45…7069
sports · 1194 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$251 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$401 · open −$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$95
Realized−$401
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses809 / 414
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1223 / 1194
History coverage65d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 8 History 1223 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$20
14 days−$140
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Virtus.pro 79¢ 66¢ $33 $27 −$6 (-17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 77¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 78¢ 82¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will The MongolZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 62¢ 38¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-40%)
Will Legacy qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 85¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 69¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 60¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 61¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Team Vitality 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Red Force 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner Gentle Mates 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BIG 69¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 71¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner Team Falcons 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 75¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 60¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Vitality 84¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs GamerLegion 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 72¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playo Jun 14 $3 −$5 -151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$6 -329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$3 -169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -78%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs EYEBALLERS - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$10 -217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -48%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest G Jun 14 $0 +$2 +363%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$3 -89%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$13 +156%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $25 +$11 +44%
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $42 +$23 +54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $28 +$8 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$4 +185%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $30 +$7 +22%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $37 −$3 -8%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $20 −$4 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$209
crypto 23% −$152
other 6% +$48
world 1% +$7
tech 1% +$3
weather 0% −$7
politics 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 73¢ $3 12m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 80¢ $30 19m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $21 22m
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) SELL T1 100¢ $36 42m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $8 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 62¢ $16 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $15 1h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) BUY T1 84¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $5 2h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) BUY T1 61¢ $15 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 56¢ $12 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 33¢ $12 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 24¢ $9 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $30 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 18¢ $9 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 19¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $36 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 88¢ $8 14h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL FURIA 99¢ $6 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 91¢ $30 14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 97¢ $37 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 82¢ $8 14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 91¢ $20 14h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 100¢ $34 14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 77¢ $20 14h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $6 14h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 68¢ $16 14h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 94¢ $6 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -22.2% -29.6% 55% 39% -9.5%
≤30d 560 -8.9% -17.6% 67% 45% -9.5%
≤90d 1223 -7.2% -16.1% 66% 44% -10.8%
all 1223 -7.2% -16.1% 66% 44% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 44% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 25% -19.4%
15% -31.4% 14% -27.2%
20% -38.2% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.64 · official $94.64 (match) · 3500 history records