Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:25:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c48…d40e
other · 183 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses14 / 169
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage156d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 0 History 183 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $36 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 29 $172 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 28 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $156 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 28 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $139 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $65 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $101 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $145 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 24 $271 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 24 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 24 $59 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 23 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 23 $57 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 22 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 19 $151 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 13 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 26% −$4
politics 24% −$3
other 21% −$4
culture 9% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
economics 7% −$1
world 3% $0
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $27 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $28 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 11d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 11d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 94¢ $36 19d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 94¢ $36 19d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $23 27d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $23 27d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $32 76d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $32 77d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $31 77d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $31 77d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $34 77d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $34 77d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $29 77d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $29 77d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $24 77d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $24 78d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $36 78d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $36 78d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 78d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 78d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $35 78d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $35 78d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $25 78d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $25 79d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 79d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 79d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $27 79d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $27 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 4 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 46 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 183 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 754 history records