Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8C 0x8c49…54fa crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$1,622per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 97% $0
crypto 1% $0
other 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 10 +0.4% -9.2% 80% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.54 per $1 lost it wins $4.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage222d
Avg bet$1,622
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 09 $2 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 09 $36 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 09 $72 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 05 $68 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in February? Mar 05 $72 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Feb 24 $137 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $17,323 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Jan 20 $9 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 20 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.52 · official $75.52 (match) · 21 history records