Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8c49…6a91 finance 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$135 (+6%) realized +$92 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate76%28W / 9L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$47
14 days+$100
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 48% +$18
finance 32% +$35
other 16% +$56
world 3% +$7
politics 1% +$4
economics 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +28.0% +15.8% 89% 67% +4.9%
≤30d 21 +4.4% -5.5% 81% 43% -5.3%
≤90d 30 +10.6% +0.0% 83% 53% -4.6%
all 37 +5.3% -4.7% 76% 49% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 49% -4.4%
10% -13.8% 30% -13.6%
15% -22.1% 22% -21.9%
20% -29.8% 16% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$555
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses28 / 9
Open positions13
Markets (closed)37 / 50
History coverage107d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? No 88¢ 90¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 89¢ 97¢ $70 $77 +$7 (+10%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 38¢ 82¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+117%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 14¢ 40¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+182%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 27¢ 66¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+146%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+55%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+60%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $20 +$19 +92%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +28%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $40 +$6 +14%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $201 +$13 +7%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +61%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 18 $4 +$5 +127%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $61 +$15 +26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $261 +$15 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $171 +$26 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -45%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 07 $50 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 07 $30 +$2 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 07 $20 +$1 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $140 +$7 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 29 $15 +$3 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $375 +$6 +2%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $3 +$1 +49%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 13 $6 +$4 +70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 13 $12 +$3 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 13 $17 +$3 +17%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $11 −$11 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $20 +$10 +51%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Mar 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 21 $20 +$2 +10%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 14 $1 $0 -12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 14 $1 $0 -18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 14 $1 $0 -41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 100¢ $39 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $100 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $101 6h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 0¢ $0 18h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 21h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $11 22h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 46h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 47h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 47h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $200 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $70 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $20 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 94¢ $100 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 38¢ $10 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 27¢ $3 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 51¢ $20 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 93¢ $100 4d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $10 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 18¢ $3 5d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 4¢ $1 5d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 14¢ $5 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 87¢ $21 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 11d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.58 · official $554.59 (match) · 120 history records